Posts Tagged ‘Royal Caribbean International’

Cruise Market Watch Announces 2013 Cruise Trends Forecast

Now in its fifth consecutive year, we are proud to release our 2013 cruise market statistics.  In that short span of time the industry has robustly managed both a “great recession” and a once in a century ship incident.

MS Ryndam in Cozumel. Royal Caribbean and Carn...

MS Ryndam in Cozumel. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Costa Concordia and European sovereign debt crisis impacted all cruise line revenues by about -5.1% from our original 2012 estimate (made two months prior to Concorida in November 2011).  The actual revenue versus forecast difference was largest for Carnival Corporation (-9.2%) compared to -2.5% for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Passengers carried however continued to climb.  Compared to our original 2012 forecast of 5.6% growth, actual results were very accurate.  Carnival was down just -0.9% while Royal Caribbean was up 0.3% versus original estimates.  All-in-all, 2013 looks to rebound strongly from the year prior on all accounts.

Among the 2013 highlights:

  • - The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $36.2 billion, up 4.8% from 2012.
  • - Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2013 is forecast at 20.9 million, a 3.3% increase over 2012.
  • - The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) account for 71.7% of worldwide share of revenue
  • - Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $17.5 billion.
  • - The top two ports are Miami, FL for embarkations and Nassau Bahamas as destination.
  • - Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2013 will be 438,595 passengers (a 3.0% increase over 2012) and 283 ships.
  • - The average per passenger per day is projected to be $200.85, with $152.39 ticket price and $48.47 on board spending (average cruise duration 8.5 days, median duration 7.0 days).

A total of six new ships will be added in 2013 with a gain in passenger capacity of 14,074 (including the 3,600 passenger Royal Princess, the 4,010 passenger Norwegian Breakaway, 2,192-guest AIDAstella and 3,502 berth MSC Preziosa).  Looking out further, 13 more new cruise ships will add 39,297 lower births or 8.9% to passenger capacity by the end of 2015 – generating $3.2 billion more in annual revenue for the cruise industry.

By 2017, 23.7 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 59.1% will originate from North America and 27.4% Europe.


Related articles

Is Royal Caribbean taking market share from Carnival?

Royal Caribbean International

Royal Caribbean International (Photo credit: lewishamdreamer)

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) stock priced gained as much as 12 percent today after its third quarter earnings announcement, closing up over 8 percent.  The stock hit a new 12 month high.   Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) was also up, and its stock is near the October 18th 12 month high.

The relative stock price gain between the two compared to the year prior (October 25, 2011), however, is what we find interesting.  Over that timeframe Carnival is up 10.0% while Royal Caribbean is now up 36.2%.  The reason is as obvious as a large rock of the coast of Giglio Island.

Which begs the question, is the second largest cruise company in the world taking market share from Carnival?  To answer that question, we took a look at the last two full earnings statements post Concorida.  RCL ticket revenue year over year (YOY) for Q2 and Q3 is down -2.1%, while CCL is down -6.7%.  RCL’s share of ticket revenue increased from 31.2% to 32.2%.  So in regard to revenue, one would have to conclude that yes, Royal Caribbean (while also clearly impacted from the tragedy in Italy) is growing revenue share in the current environment.

On the other hand, passengers carried for RCL is down -0.1% and CCL is up 2.6%.  How can this be?  Well Carnival added three new ships* into its sailings during Q2 and Q3 2012 while Royal Caribbean’s one 2012 entry didn’t set sail until after Q3 (the 3,030-passenger Celebrity Reflection, October 12th).  So despite the removal of the Concordia from its fleet, CCL still gained in share of passengers carried with new build additions.  RCL’s share of passengers carried went from 32.7% to 32.1%.

Dividing ticket revenue by Average Passenger Cruise Days (APCD) provides an approximation of the average ticket price per person per day.  In that case RCL is down -3.0% (from $182.44 last year to $177.02 this year) and CCL -9.0% (from $188.35 last year to $171.33 this year).

So in summary, cruise ships are still sailing filled over 100% occupancy (occupancy of RCL is basically flat and CCL is down – 1.7%).  However, passengers are setting sail at better prices than a year ago.  RCL has benefited from a relatively stronger pricing position and hence improved is share of revenues, while CCL was able to grow share of passengers sailed by adding capacity.  In the end, better pricing power translates to better margins, which translate into increased profits for shareholders – and hence the relative difference in the two cruise company’s stock performance.

One interesting side note, there was an increase in onboard spending for both lines; 2% for RCL and 3.2% for CCL.  Perhaps lower ticket prices and onboard credit incentives are prompting cruisers to free up their wallets a little more – transferring some of the ticket price savings back to the cruise lines.

 * 3,000-passenger Costa Fascinosa, May 2; 2,184-passenger AIDAmar, May 12; 3,690-passenger Carnival Breeze, June 3

Carriage and Cruise from the Port of San Juan

Sally with RCL's Grandeur of The Seas

Cruising has always been about more than just sailing – it’s also about visiting and exploring destinations.  One of the best ways to do that in Old San Juan Puerto Rico is a horse and carriage tour with Las Calesas Del Viejo San Juan.  Not only will you get to see the highlights of Old San Juan, you will learn about the culture and history from your skilled and knowledgeable driver.  The sound of horse’s hooves over the cobblestone streets can’t help but transport you back to the early years of Spanish rule in the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries.

Experiences such as these explain the positive cruise industry economic impacts to local economies and small businesses that operate shore side excursions.

Puerto Rico is no exception.  With a 2012 Port Pulse™ rank of 26th (out of over 830 embarkation and destination ports around the world) the Port of San Juan benefits from the spending of 150,000 crew and 920,000 annual passengers.  That is a direct economic impact estimated at over $125 million.

Review seasonality of 2012 passenger and crew spending in San Juan, cruise line share and embarkation vs. destination statistics in the charts below by clicking the image to enlarge.

 

Cruise passenger and crew spending in ports of call from direct spending on a variety of goods and services including ground transportation, clothing, food and shore excursions.  For embarkation/debarkation ports estimates also include lodging as part of a pre- and/or post-cruise stay, air and ground transportation and miscellaneous port and cruise line services.  

Sources: Crew and passenger visitation rates and port spending estimates derived from Business Research & Economic Advisors, Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association and Cruise Lines International Association.  Each ship's unique destination itinerary, sailing days and passenger capacity from Cruise Market Watch.

Costa Concordia Impact to Cruise Prices and Bookings

Thus far pricing* for sailings on Costa (all Costa ships, all sailing departure dates) has not changed since the Concordia accident on January 13, 2012.  Click on graph below for advertised prices from January 7 to January 21, 2012.  Note little or no change to the booking prices.  With prices for Costa holding up, wave season for RCL and CCL are likely holding up as well (refer to Cruise Pulse for details).

This finding is backed up by responses from several U.S. travel agents in regard to booking demand.  Surprisingly, agents have indicated minimal to no demand impact.  Nevertheless, on 12/30/2012  Carnival guided loss a booking slow down in the mid teens.

Interestingly, travel agents are currently Carnival’s best marketing resource. While the “Land vs. Sea” campaign is off the air (given its theme the campaign does not “play well” with current events) thousands of travel agents are out in the community engaged in conversations with prospective cruisers on a daily basis.  It is these human one-on-one interactions that assure vacationers this tragic event is a “one off“ and in fact, given the renewed focus on safety and procedures, now is the safest time to cruise ever.

* Average price per day per person, inside cabin.


Cruise Market Watch Announces 2012 Cruise Trends Forecast

Among the 2012 highlights:

  • ~ The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $34.1 billion
  • ~ Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2012 is estimated at 20.3 million, a 5.6% increase over 2011
  • ~ The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) account for 73% of worldwide share of revenue
  • ~ The 2012 Port PulseTM rankings place Miami Florida as the #1 cruise embarkation port in the world and Nassau Bahamas the #1 port of call
  • ~ Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $15.5 billion
A panoramic view of Prince George Wharf, the f...

Image via Wikipedia

 While cruise lines have grown annual passengers traveled at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% since 1990 - all the cruise ships in the entire world filled at capacity all year long still only amount to less than ½ of the total number of annual visitors to Las Vegas.  Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2012 is estimated at 20.3 million, an increase of 5.6% over 2011.

On the heals of the several new ships to be added to the market in 2012 (including the 3,690 passenger Carnival Breeze, the 3,013 passenger MSC Divina,  3,012-guest Costa Fascinosca and 2,500 berth Disney Fantasy) eight more new cruise ships will launch by 2015. These ships will generate another $2.3 billion in annual revenue for the cruise industry. By 2015, 22.3 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide.

This is not only good for the cruise industry (of which two cruise companies dominate - Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) with a combined 73% of worldwide market share) but also for the local economies of ports visited by cruise passengers.  Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports around the world is estimated at $15.5 billion.  The 2012 Port PulseTM rankings place Miami, Florida as the #1 embarkation port and Nassau Bahamas the #1 port of call.  North America and Europe serve as the source markets for 85.9% of worldwide passengers, but other regions of the world such as Asia are growing significantly.

The new ships continue to bring attention to cruising, creating interest, additional pricing power, economies of scale and bookings of first time cruisers.  Average cruise revenue per passenger per day for 2012 is projected to be $240.13.


Where Norwegian Cruises

Norwegian Cruise Lines has been generating positive cruise industry buzz over the last few weeks.  After all, the launch of its new “Cruise like a Norwegian” national adverting campaign alone would be enough garner cruisers attention.  But Norwegian topped itself with a simultaneous announcement of advance booking availability to sail its newest ship, the Breakaway as early as April 30, 2013. The Breakaway will home port in none other than the Big Apple - New York City). 

What else could we do?  We had to map all of Norwegian’s sailings for the next 12 months and let users discover how many cruisers around the world are cruising like Norwegians – by port, ship, country and month.  Discover for yourself using the interactive interface below.    

Insights into how the cruise lines are performing around the world, and how pricing changes impact forward earnings can be accessed from our proprietary database.  It tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations for over 8,000 annual cruises.  With an exclusive window into the pricing of virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time.

 


Have cruise prices and revenues softened for European sailings?

Cruise stocks have been on some ride over last few weeks.  Both Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL) touched new 52-week lows early this week, only to rebound with the overall market as stock prices whipsaw in reaction to the daily cycle of news out of Europe.

Headlines jump between “Greek Default Unavoidable” to “Greek Aid Likely,” and ”Eurozone Contagion” to “Banks are Stress Tested.”

Trying to predict and trade the swings boarders on madness, but one can predict the impact on cruise cabin prices for sailings with European itineraries.

Click on the interactive chart below.  One can see with each “Priced on Month” closer to a European sailing departure, the Total Weighted Average* price has come down – more so for the nearer term sailing dates.

Indeed, European pricing trends were confirmed by Carnival’s most recent 3rd quarter earnings conference call

 “In Europe, the sovereign debt issues and the related concerns about the strength of the European banks contributed to the slowdown in EAA brand bookings. These issues, together with related declines in consumer confidence in the various markets in which we operate, seem to have contributed to the softened booking activity during this August and early September period.”

Insights into how the cruise lines are performing in other regions of the world, and how pricing changes impact forward earnings can be accessed from our proprietary database.  It tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations for over 8,000 annual cruises.  With an exclusive window into the pricing of virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time.

* Cruise Market Watch’s proprietary weighted average of the daily advertised price for each ships cruise sailing for each cabin category (on a per sailing day basis).  Weighting based on the total number of cabins on each ship in each category.

Enhanced by Zemanta

 


How much money should I bring on a cruise

English: Disney Cruise Lines' Disney Wonder in...

Image via Wikipedia

Going on a cruise is one of many vacationer's dreams. The great thing about a cruise is that everything is pretty much there for you and you don't have to worry about bringing in extra money, not unless you want to buy some souvenirs on the place of your destination. Other than that, it's all about enjoyment and lot's of fun. It is still highly recommended though that you bring in just a bit of extra cash just in case of emergencies.

How much are last minute cruises?

There are many different types of cruises you can take and if you are going for a last minute cruises, it will all depend on where you want to go and how many days do you want to stay. If you are going to like the Caribbean, then you should be expecting between $150 to $300 per person. That includes your stay for at least 4 nights from Miami. If you are going for 7 days and coming from a different location, then the price may not be the same.

What are the best cruises?

If you are looking forward to go on a cruise with your kid's, I think the best cruise that I can recommend is the Disney cruise. Your kids will enjoy themselves while they're on the ship. They'll be entertained by their favorite Disney characters. For the parents, they can entertain themselves with some of the great shows and nightclubs as well. As part of the cruise, you will get to spend some time in the Caribbean for 2 nights or depending on the package you want to purchase. You can find the best combination like 3 days in Caribbean and 4 days Disney World.

How much money should you bring?

The average amount of money a person should ranges from $1000 to $2000. The only thing you will be spending on your cruise is your cocktails, souvenirs, and if you want to try your luck at the casino, but you won't have to pay while you are on board, you can pay that on the last day of your cruise. Coffee, tea, milk, lemonade, punch, and bottled water are all free.

What are the best places to go on a cruise?

Some of the famous cruise destinations are the Bahamas, the Caribbean, Bora Bora, Jamaica, Alaska and of course for your kid's, Disney World, but there are some other great destinations to choose from. The farther the location, the more you'll have to pay. Disney cruise is about $600 to $700 per person.

It is for your best interest to contact your local travel agent for all the list and information of available cruise destinations. They have all information of the prices and the best deal they can provide you, along with the number of days you want to spend. They will also be glad to offer different packages they have available on every cruise. This will give you an idea of what and where to go based on your budget.

Our proprietary database tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations from nearly 8,000 annual cruises. With an exclusive window into virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time. 

 

Will Royal Caribbean’s earnings be an Oasis?

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) is scheduled to release the company's fourth quarter financial results this week on Thursday, January 27, 2011.  This provides us an opportunity to compare "mega" ships current pricing (per person, inside cabin).

In the graph below one can see the average inside cabin asking price (during August to December 2010) for various sailing departure dates.  The Allure and Oasis have mirrored each other fairly closely, topping out at just over $1,400 per person.  Other than Allure's inaugural sailings, you will pay roughly the same for either Royal Caribbean ship.

Interestingly, Norwegian's Epic has maintained higher pricing than Carnival's Dream.  The premium paid to sail Royal Caribbean mega ships diminishes during September to November 2011 (particularly compared the Epic) only to increase again in the later part of the year.  Albeit, one can currently book a cruise aboard the Allure or Oasis during January to March 2012 for about 11% less than January to March 2011.  The bottom line, Royal Caribbean managed to unleash two of cruising's greatest buzz-worthy ships when it went super-sized.  If RCL can to continue to retain higher asking prices, larger margins and economies of scale from those investments will reward investors.

Royal Caribbean's earnings call will be available on-line at the company's investor relations web site, www.rclinvestor.com.

Our proprietary database tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations from nearly 8,000 annual cruises.  With an exclusive window into virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time.

 

Top 5 least expensive cruises

Our proprietary database tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations from nearly 8,000 annual cruises.

This gives us a unique vantage point to spot unusual values.* Topping our "least expensive" list is the Norwegian Sky.  For a total of $109 you could sail round trip from Miami, FL to Grand Bahamas Island, Bahamas to Great Stirrup Cay, Bahamas and Nassau, Bahamas.

Rank Price Per Day Cruise Ship Sail On Date Total Number of Days
1 $27 Norwegian Sky 9/5/2011 4
2 $35 MSC Poesia 1/30/2011 7
3 $36 Vision of the Seas 11/18/2011 14
4 $38 Splendour of the Seas 11/25/2011 16
5 $39 Monarch of the Seas 1/31/2011 4
FORT LAUDERDALE, FL - NOVEMBER 10: Suzanne Sum...

Getty Images via @daylife

If you have more time sail the MSC Poesia.  For as little as $249 she cruises from Fort Lauderdale, FL to Key West, FL and Ocho Rios, Jamaica to Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands to Cozumel, Mexico returning to Fort Lauderdale, FL.

The last three in our top 5 least expensive cruises (per day per person) are all Royal Caribbean.  Of the three, two don’t sail until November 2011, so you have plenty of time to book.

The Vision of the Seas, which hit prices as low as $514 in December, is a transatlantic sailing.  It starts in Lisbon Portugal, moving to several stops in Grand Canary Islands; then Recife, Salvador and Rio de Janeiro Brazil.

Closer to home the Monarch of the Seas, pricing a round trip from Port Canaveral, FL at $159.  It stops in Coco Cay and Nassau, Bahamas.

Feeling even more exotic?  Try this low price Spain to Brazil cruise.  The Splendour of the Seas from $619 also crosses the Atlantic.  You will sail from Barcelona Spain with stops in Valencia Spain; Cadiz Spain; Lisbon Portugal; Tenerife Canary Islands and Salvador Brazil.

For more least expensive cruises visit World Cruise Watch.

With an exclusive window into virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time.

* Lowest advertised inside cabin price from December 2010.  Price will vary based on actual date of booking.