Cruise Market Watch Announces 2013 Cruise Trends Forecast

Now in its fifth consecutive year, we are proud to release our 2013 cruise market statistics.  In that short span of time the industry has robustly managed both a “great recession” and a once in a century ship incident.

MS Ryndam in Cozumel. Royal Caribbean and Carn...

MS Ryndam in Cozumel. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Costa Concordia and European sovereign debt crisis impacted all cruise line revenues by about -5.1% from our original 2012 estimate (made two months prior to Concorida in November 2011).  The actual revenue versus forecast difference was largest for Carnival Corporation (-9.2%) compared to -2.5% for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Passengers carried however continued to climb.  Compared to our original 2012 forecast of 5.6% growth, actual results were very accurate.  Carnival was down just -0.9% while Royal Caribbean was up 0.3% versus original estimates.  All-in-all, 2013 looks to rebound strongly from the year prior on all accounts.

Among the 2013 highlights:

  • - The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $36.2 billion, up 4.8% from 2012.
  • - Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2013 is forecast at 20.9 million, a 3.3% increase over 2012.
  • - The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) account for 71.7% of worldwide share of revenue
  • - Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $17.5 billion.
  • - The top two ports are Miami, FL for embarkations and Nassau Bahamas as destination.
  • - Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2013 will be 438,595 passengers (a 3.0% increase over 2012) and 283 ships.
  • - The average per passenger per day is projected to be $200.85, with $152.39 ticket price and $48.47 on board spending (average cruise duration 8.5 days, median duration 7.0 days).

A total of six new ships will be added in 2013 with a gain in passenger capacity of 14,074 (including the 3,600 passenger Royal Princess, the 4,010 passenger Norwegian Breakaway, 2,192-guest AIDAstella and 3,502 berth MSC Preziosa).  Looking out further, 13 more new cruise ships will add 39,297 lower births or 8.9% to passenger capacity by the end of 2015 – generating $3.2 billion more in annual revenue for the cruise industry.

By 2017, 23.7 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 59.1% will originate from North America and 27.4% Europe.

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  1. […] sweet promotions that characterized the early 2012 market. This year, the worldwide cruise market is estimated to reach $36.2 billion, up 4.8% year-over-year, according to Cruise Market Watch’s 2013 forecast. That includes […]