Sources:  Each ship’s unique destination itinerary, sailing days and passenger capacity from Cruise Market Watch.  Crew and passenger debarkation rates and port spending estimates derived from Business Research & Economic Advisers, Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association and Cruise Lines International Association.

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Unloading relief supplies on Carnival Splendor 2010-11-09 2 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The “Pop Tart Cruise” on Carnival Splendor November 2010 was greeted with curiosity and had little impact to bookings or ticket prices.  The Costa Concordia January 2012 incident was greeted with shock.  Bookings and prices did drop and while they have since recovered; public consciousness of the event still hasn’t gone away (and either has Captain Schettino).  I get the sense the “Cruise from Hell” on the Carnival Triumph February 2013 is being greeted with “enough is enough.”

Sure, with over 10,000 annual cruise sailings every year there are little things that can happen to cruise ships (pier bumps, rouge waves etc.,).  And with a seven percent compounded annual growth rate, the likelihood of such events simply continues to be multiplied.  Nevertheless, when a company dusts off the pre-Concordia advertising campaign themed “Land vs. Sea” to run in the subsequent year’s wave season, one is tempted to question good judgment.

I know.  Memories are short.  The media will move on to new stories.  Carnival obviously overcame the fact its first cruise ship, the Mardi Gras, ran aground on a sandbar during its inaugural voyage in 1972.  And don’t expect any instant drop in ticket prices. Prices for close-in sailings (those sold one to three months in advance of departure) took five months after Concordia to bottom in June 2012 .

The direct impact to the bottom line can be quantified by simply accounting for the 14 canceled Triumph sailings scheduled between Feb 11th and April 13th 2013, plus the ill-fated Feb 7th voyage.  The amount totals $20.8 million in revenue according to Cruise Pulse.  Based on the Splendor being off line 101 days, we believe Triumph guidance of 71 days is overly aggressive and the Triumph will likely cancel 7 more cruises up to the May 5th sailing, adding $9.8 million to lost ticket revenue.

But unfortunately the story may not end there.  On the margin, where cash from ticket revenues meet up with corporate expenses this event will continue to be felt.  Not exactly what an industry wants at a time when they are already being squeezed by a slowing European economy and the specter of inflation to costs for fuel and victualing.

When prospective cruisers hear Triumph passengers saying: “The credit, refund and $500 aren’t really important. It’s not about the money.  We will pay Carnival anything just to let us off the ship.”  You have to wonder, will this time be different?

Repeat customers and die-hard cruisers will just get more bargains.  And when prices get low enough, it is amazing how memories fade.  But no spin can turn this publicity into a good thing for the industry.  In order to attract the best talent to work aboard ships, continue to penetrate the large “never before cruised” market and stay the course with investors attracted to exponential passenger growth these events can’t continue.  With 10,000 more “at bats” over the next year, getting wood on the ball 99.99% of the time so 20.9 million cruisers all leave happy and share their positive experiences is critical.  In the interim, Cruise Market Watch will continue monitoring the ticket revenue and pricing trends.

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MS Ryndam in Cozumel. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Costa Concordia and European sovereign debt crisis impacted all cruise line revenues by about -5.1% from our original 2012 estimate (made two months prior to Concorida in November 2011).  The actual revenue versus forecast difference was largest for Carnival Corporation (-9.2%) compared to -2.5% for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Passengers carried however continued to climb.  Compared to our original 2012 forecast of 5.6% growth, actual results were very accurate.  Carnival was down just -0.9% while Royal Caribbean was up 0.3% versus original estimates.  All-in-all, 2013 looks to rebound strongly from the year prior on all accounts.

Among the 2013 highlights:

• - The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $36.2 billion, up 4.8% from 2012.
• - Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2013 is forecast at 20.9 million, a 3.3% increase over 2012.
• - The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) account for 71.7% of worldwide share of revenue
• - Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $17.5 billion.
• - The top two ports are Miami, FL for embarkations and Nassau Bahamas as destination.
• - Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2013 will be 438,595 passengers (a 3.0% increase over 2012) and 283 ships.
• - The average per passenger per day is projected to be $200.85, with $152.39 ticket price and $48.47 on board spending (average cruise duration 8.5 days, median duration 7.0 days).

A total of six new ships will be added in 2013 with a gain in passenger capacity of 14,074 (including the 3,600 passenger Royal Princess, the 4,010 passenger Norwegian Breakaway, 2,192-guest AIDAstella and 3,502 berth MSC Preziosa).  Looking out further, 13 more new cruise ships will add 39,297 lower births or 8.9% to passenger capacity by the end of 2015 – generating $3.2 billion more in annual revenue for the cruise industry.

By 2017, 23.7 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 59.1% will originate from North America and 27.4% Europe.


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Interestingly, unlike its European infograph counterpart, Caribbean cruises get more expensive each month closer to the sail on date – so no penalty for booking well in advance!

^* Cruise Market Watch total weighted average price (per per person per day) across all cabin categories.

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Royal Caribbean International (Photo credit: lewishamdreamer)

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) stock priced gained as much as 12 percent today after its third quarter earnings announcement, closing up over 8 percent.  The stock hit a new 12 month high.   Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL) was also up, and its stock is near the October 18^th 12 month high.

The relative stock price gain between the two compared to the year prior (October 25, 2011), however, is what we find interesting.  Over that timeframe Carnival is up 10.0% while Royal Caribbean is now up 36.2%.  The reason is as obvious as a large rock of the coast of Giglio Island.

Which begs the question, is the second largest cruise company in the world taking market share from Carnival?  To answer that question, we took a look at the last two full earnings statements post Concorida.  RCL ticket revenue year over year (YOY) for Q2 and Q3 is down -2.1%, while CCL is down -6.7%.  RCL’s share of ticket revenue increased from 31.2% to 32.2%.  So in regard to revenue, one would have to conclude that yes, Royal Caribbean (while also clearly impacted from the tragedy in Italy) is growing revenue share in the current environment.

On the other hand, passengers carried for RCL is down -0.1% and CCL is up 2.6%.  How can this be?  Well Carnival added three new ships^* into its sailings during Q2 and Q3 2012 while Royal Caribbean’s one 2012 entry didn’t set sail until after Q3 (the 3,030-passenger Celebrity Reflection, October 12^th).  So despite the removal of the Concordia from its fleet, CCL still gained in share of passengers carried with new build additions.  RCL’s share of passengers carried went from 32.7% to 32.1%.

Dividing ticket revenue by Average Passenger Cruise Days (APCD) provides an approximation of the average ticket price per person per day.  In that case RCL is down -3.0% (from $182.44 last year to $177.02 this year) and CCL -9.0% (from $188.35 last year to $171.33 this year).

So in summary, cruise ships are still sailing filled over 100% occupancy (occupancy of RCL is basically flat and CCL is down – 1.7%).  However, passengers are setting sail at better prices than a year ago.  RCL has benefited from a relatively stronger pricing position and hence improved is share of revenues, while CCL was able to grow share of passengers sailed by adding capacity.  In the end, better pricing power translates to better margins, which translate into increased profits for shareholders – and hence the relative difference in the two cruise company’s stock performance.

One interesting side note, there was an increase in onboard spending for both lines; 2% for RCL and 3.2% for CCL.  Perhaps lower ticket prices and onboard credit incentives are prompting cruisers to free up their wallets a little more – transferring some of the ticket price savings back to the cruise lines.

 * 3,000-passenger Costa Fascinosa, May 2; 2,184-passenger AIDAmar, May 12; 3,690-passenger Carnival Breeze, June 3

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^* Cruise Market Watch total weighted average price (per day per person) across all cabin categories from 30 cruise lines and 163 ships representing over 8,500 sailings in northern and southern Europe between September 1, 2010 to November 30, 2013.

As demonstrated by the word cloud of that news flow below, the Captain remains squarely at the center of the discussion.

And the impact has been felt in the industry.  Three weeks ago on September 25th, the word “Costa” was mentioned 67 times in Carnival’s Q3 earnings conference call.  That was more than “Executive” (66 times), but less than “quarter” (96 times).

In summary, earnings were reduced as a result of the Concordia incident by about $500 million, and Costa lost about $100 million in 2012.  In the most recent financial quarter – a quarter that booked revenue for sailings six to eight months after the accident, Costa accounted for over half of Carnival’s decline in net revenue yields.

The Costa brand’s occupancy drop was 5% in 2012, with an 11% decline in the second and a 6% drop in the third quarters.  In the fourth quarter of 2012 Costa’s ships are expected to match the occupancy rates of a year prior, albeit at lower prices.

Going forward, pricing and occupancy for Costa’s bookings in Q1 2013 are tracking lower on a year-over-year basis.  However, these differences will narrow as year over year comparisons versus 2012 become easier.  According to Howard Frank, Carnival’s Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer “Based on consumer research, the brand perception in each of Costa’s major markets is gradually improving so we are greatly encouraged by the resiliency of the brand.”

In fact, Carnival has a new build on order for Costa with expected delivery in the Fall 2014  The Costa brand is also helping to develop an emerging cruise market strategy in Australia and Asia.  Carnival has increased capacity by 8.5% in these markets and will be sending the Costa Atlantica to join the Costa Victoria in China in the spring of 2013.  Costa was an early entrant into the Chinese market and has a marketing history there.

Take the folks over at CruiseWise.com.  They dared to color outside the lines and developed a neat little port crowd calculator widget.

That could be a point of differentiation in the commoditized world of online cruise booking.  As one of history’s greatest artists/designers Coco Channel said “In order to be irreplaceable one must always be different.”

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• Cruise Ship Segmentation

• ~ average duration of cruise
• ~ average price per person per day (weighted across all cabin categories)
• ~ ship passenger capacity

From 221 different cruise ships accounting for over 9,000 sailings in the next 12 months, our model produced 10 distinctive cruise ship segments.

Each segment describes, based on the data provided, the “class” to which its members belong (naming the segments is, however, more art than science). Segment members are mathematically most similar to each other along the three dimensions, and most dissimilar to members of the other groups.

Interact with the graph below by clicking segment selector and discover each segment’s averages and ship members.  And yes, Oasis and Allure really are in a class all by themselves.  The math is un-biased, so don’t hate.

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