Sally with RCL's Grandeur of The Seas

Cruising has always been about more than just sailing – it’s also about visiting and exploring destinations.  One of the best ways to do that in Old San Juan Puerto Rico is a horse and carriage tour with Las Calesas Del Viejo San Juan.  Not only will you get to see the highlights of Old San Juan, you will learn about the culture and history from your skilled and knowledgeable driver.  The sound of horse’s hooves over the cobblestone streets can’t help but transport you back to the early years of Spanish rule in the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries.

Experiences such as these explain the positive cruise industry economic impacts to local economies and small businesses that operate shore side excursions.

Puerto Rico is no exception.  With a 2012 Port Pulse™ rank of 26^th (out of over 830 embarkation and destination ports around the world) the Port of San Juan benefits from the spending of 150,000 crew and 920,000 annual passengers.  That is a direct economic impact estimated at over $125 million.

Review seasonality of 2012 passenger and crew spending in San Juan, cruise line share and embarkation vs. destination statistics in the charts below by clicking the image to enlarge.

Cruise passenger and crew spending in ports of call from direct spending on a variety of goods and services including ground transportation, clothing, food and shore excursions.  For embarkation/debarkation ports estimates also include lodging as part of a pre- and/or post-cruise stay, air and ground transportation and miscellaneous port and cruise line services.  

Sources: Crew and passenger visitation rates and port spending estimates derived from Business Research & Economic Advisors, Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association and Cruise Lines International Association.  Each ship’s unique destination itinerary, sailing days and passenger capacity from Cruise Market Watch.

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This finding is backed up by responses from several U.S. travel agents in regard to booking demand.  Surprisingly, agents have indicated minimal to no demand impact.  Nevertheless, on 12/30/2012  Carnival guided loss a booking slow down in the mid teens.

Interestingly, travel agents are currently Carnival’s best marketing resource. While the “Land vs. Sea” campaign is off the air (given its theme the campaign does not “play well” with current events) thousands of travel agents are out in the community engaged in conversations with prospective cruisers on a daily basis.  It is these human one-on-one interactions that assure vacationers this tragic event is a “one off“ and in fact, given the renewed focus on safety and procedures, now is the safest time to cruise ever.

^{* Average price per day per person, inside cabin.}

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Traditionally I have considered the media coverage of cruises ships to be somewhat lopsided.  I imagine there are plenty of things going on over the course of a year throughout hotel rooms in Las Vegas for example – but we tend not to hear these stories. By contrast, we do readily hear about the occasional sick cruise ship passenger, bad smell or overboard suicide. 

My heart goes out to the passengers and families on Concordia’s sailing.  This is a terrible tragedy by any measure.  Without diminishing these human experiences, the recent events of the Costa Concordia will at the very least have an impact to Carnival’s near term bottom line, something Cruise Market Watch can measure. 

For the Costa Concordia, remaining sailings in Carnival’s First Quarter (Q1) 2012 would have brought in an estimated total of $15.8 million in ticket revenue.  For Q2 the impact will be in the order of $47.4 million in ticket revenue, Q3 $63 million and Q4 $45.9 million.  Concordia was booking considerably higher prices during the summer (June, July and August).  In a “back of the napkin” estimate that assumes the lost ticket revenue falls straight out of the bottom line this would equate to about .02 cents in Q1 earnings per share and .05 cents in Q2.  The loss to earnings from the Carnival Splendor incident was .07 cents per share in a single quarter.  Things we can’t measure include – what will be costs of raising and repairing the Concordia and when will she sail again?  Will those who have already booked future sailings on Concordia transfer their vacations to other ships?  What will be the legal actions and operational changes? We will have to wait to hear guidance from Carnival. Update: 12/30/2012  Carnival guided loss be in the range of $155-$175 million after a booking slow down in the mid teens.  This news came after initially guiding $85 to $95 million lower (or .11 cents to .12 cents per share) on 12/16/2012.

Fortunately, ship builder Fincantieri has ship yards located right in Italy.  Any near term impact to ticket pricing across Costa and other cruise brands will likely correlate with the duration of time in which the story continues to garner news headlines and cruise brands keep their wave season ad campaigns off the television.  Pricing impacts will continue to be closely watched. 

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What destinations can cruiser newbies discover aboard Fun Ships in 2012? And from what home ports can they set sail? What could Cruise Market Watch do but count and map the options in the interactive table below.

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Royal Caribbean seeks to draw from our yearning for the ocean in a new ad campaign “The Sea Is Calling” (Learn more and see the video here.)

What else could we do but answer the question – at what cost? We had to graph Royal Caribbean’s average price per person per day for an inside cabin on sailings to destinations in the Caribbean.

You can answer Royal Caribbean’s calling for as low as $82 per person per day as early as the end of this January – or during peak pricing towards early July for as much as $145 per person per day.   Either way, both Royal Caribbean and the ocean will be waiting to greet you.

Cruise Market Watch’s proprietary databases are mined, statistically analyzed and modeled for over 1,100 ports of call from over 9,000 sailings by 190 different cruise ships owned by 25 cruise lines.  Cruise Pulse™ and Port Pulse™ reports provide near real time guidance on net revenue yields, capacity and year over year ticket pricing trends as well as port visitations and economic impact estimates.

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• ~ The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $34.1 billion
• ~ Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2012 is estimated at 20.3 million, a 5.6% increase over 2011
• ~ The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) account for 73% of worldwide share of revenue
• ~ The 2012 Port Pulse^TM rankings place Miami Florida as the #1 cruise embarkation port in the world and Nassau Bahamas the #1 port of call
• ~ Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $15.5 billion

Image via Wikipedia

 While cruise lines have grown annual passengers traveled at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% since 1990 – all the cruise ships in the entire world filled at capacity all year long still only amount to less than ½ of the total number of annual visitors to Las Vegas.  Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2012 is estimated at 20.3 million, an increase of 5.6% over 2011.

On the heals of the several new ships to be added to the market in 2012 (including the 3,690 passenger Carnival Breeze, the 3,013 passenger MSC Divina,  3,012-guest Costa Fascinosca and 2,500 berth Disney Fantasy) eight more new cruise ships will launch by 2015. These ships will generate another $2.3 billion in annual revenue for the cruise industry. By 2015, 22.3 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide.

This is not only good for the cruise industry (of which two cruise companies dominate – Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) with a combined 73% of worldwide market share) but also for the local economies of ports visited by cruise passengers.  Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports around the world is estimated at $15.5 billion.  The 2012 Port Pulse^TM rankings place Miami, Florida as the #1 embarkation port and Nassau Bahamas the #1 port of call.  North America and Europe serve as the source markets for 85.9% of worldwide passengers, but other regions of the world such as Asia are growing significantly.

The new ships continue to bring attention to cruising, creating interest, additional pricing power, economies of scale and bookings of first time cruisers.  Average cruise revenue per passenger per day for 2012 is projected to be $240.13.

What else could we do?  We had to map all of Norwegian’s sailings for the next 12 months and let users discover how many cruisers around the world are cruising like Norwegians – by port, ship, country and month.  Discover for yourself using the interactive interface below.    

Insights into how the cruise lines are performing around the world, and how pricing changes impact forward earnings can be accessed from our proprietary database.  It tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations for over 8,000 annual cruises.  With an exclusive window into the pricing of virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time.

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Headlines jump between “Greek Default Unavoidable” to “Greek Aid Likely,” and ”Eurozone Contagion” to “Banks are Stress Tested.”

Trying to predict and trade the swings boarders on madness, but one can predict the impact on cruise cabin prices for sailings with European itineraries.

Click on the interactive chart below.  One can see with each “Priced on Month” closer to a European sailing departure, the Total Weighted Average* price has come down – more so for the nearer term sailing dates.

Indeed, European pricing trends were confirmed by Carnival’s most recent 3rd quarter earnings conference call. 

 “In Europe, the sovereign debt issues and the related concerns about the strength of the European banks contributed to the slowdown in EAA brand bookings. These issues, together with related declines in consumer confidence in the various markets in which we operate, seem to have contributed to the softened booking activity during this August and early September period.”

Insights into how the cruise lines are performing in other regions of the world, and how pricing changes impact forward earnings can be accessed from our proprietary database.  It tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations for over 8,000 annual cruises.  With an exclusive window into the pricing of virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time.

_{* Cruise Market Watch’s proprietary weighted average of the daily advertised price for each ships cruise sailing for each cabin category (on a per sailing day basis).  Weighting based on the total number of cabins on each ship in each category.}

Image via Wikipedia

Going on a cruise is one of many vacationer’s dreams. The great thing about a cruise is that everything is pretty much there for you and you don’t have to worry about bringing in extra money, not unless you want to buy some souvenirs on the place of your destination. Other than that, it’s all about enjoyment and lot’s of fun. It is still highly recommended though that you bring in just a bit of extra cash just in case of emergencies.

How much are last minute cruises?

There are many different types of cruises you can take and if you are going for a last minute cruises, it will all depend on where you want to go and how many days do you want to stay. If you are going to like the Caribbean, then you should be expecting between $150 to $300 per person. That includes your stay for at least 4 nights from Miami. If you are going for 7 days and coming from a different location, then the price may not be the same.

What are the best cruises?

If you are looking forward to go on a cruise with your kid’s, I think the best cruise that I can recommend is the Disney cruise. Your kids will enjoy themselves while they’re on the ship. They’ll be entertained by their favorite Disney characters. For the parents, they can entertain themselves with some of the great shows and nightclubs as well. As part of the cruise, you will get to spend some time in the Caribbean for 2 nights or depending on the package you want to purchase. You can find the best combination like 3 days in Caribbean and 4 days Disney World.

How much money should you bring?

The average amount of money a person should ranges from $1000 to $2000. The only thing you will be spending on your cruise is your cocktails, souvenirs, and if you want to try your luck at the casino, but you won’t have to pay while you are on board, you can pay that on the last day of your cruise. Coffee, tea, milk, lemonade, punch, and bottled water are all free.

What are the best places to go on a cruise?

Some of the famous cruise destinations are the Bahamas, the Caribbean, Bora Bora, Jamaica, Alaska and of course for your kid’s, Disney World, but there are some other great destinations to choose from. The farther the location, the more you’ll have to pay. Disney cruise is about $600 to $700 per person.

It is for your best interest to contact your local travel agent for all the list and information of available cruise destinations. They have all information of the prices and the best deal they can provide you, along with the number of days you want to spend. They will also be glad to offer different packages they have available on every cruise. This will give you an idea of what and where to go based on your budget.

Our proprietary database tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations from nearly 8,000 annual cruises. With an exclusive window into virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time. 

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Many cruise lines have made the island of Curaçao a customary destination while sailing the Caribbean.  This has helped to distinguish the island as 115^th out of 625 ports on the PortPulse ranking system.  Curacao hosted 1.9% of all passengers sailing during the 4th quarter of 2010.

4th Quarter 2010:

The cruise port in Curaçao Netherlands Antilles hosted 39 cruise ship stops carrying a total of 86,158 passengers from October 1, 2010 to December 31, 2010.[1] Stops were made by 13 different cruise ships owned by 8 different cruise brands.

The direct economic impact for the quarter from passenger and crew spending on transportation, food and other retail spending is estimated at $13.6 million.[2]

2011 Forecast:

Based on published cruise itineraries for next year (January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2011) the cruise port in Curaçao Netherlands Antilles will host 120 cruise ship stops carrying a total of 271,115 passengers.  These stops will be from 21 different ships representing 9 different cruse brands.

The total direct economic impact for 2011 is estimated at $42.9 million.

Trending:

In the next comparable quarter (October 1, 2011 to December 31, 2011) passenger arrivals at the Curaçao Netherlands Antilles cruise port are expected to decline 17.4% to 71,194.

Learn more about the PortPulse reports and read the entire Curacao sample report.

Our proprietary database tracks daily ticket prices and passenger sailings to port destinations from over 8,000 annual cruises. With an exclusive window into virtually every sailing, every day, world wide (including Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Lines (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL)) our subscribers can view cruise revenue and passenger trends in near real time.

_{[1] Date range based on sail date from cruise ship embarkation ports. Estimates based on proprietary database tracking 171 cruise ships.}

_{[2] Cruise passenger and crew spending in ports of call on a variety of goods and services including ground transportation, clothing, food and shore excursions.  For embarkation/debarkation ports estimates also include lodging as part of a pre- or post-cruise stay, air transportation and port and cruise line services.  Source: Business Research & Economic Advisors, Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association and Cruise Lines International Association.}

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