Cruise Market Watch Announces 2014 Cruise Trends Forecast

Now in its sixth consecutive year, we are proud to release the 2014 cruise market forecast.

English: Carnival Ecstasy departing Puerta May...

English: Carnival Ecstasy departing Puerta Maya Pier in Cozumel. By Andy P. Jung (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Over the last six years the industry has adeptly managed a “great recession” and series of unfortunate, albeit historically rare, ship incidents. The Carnival Triumph (on the heals Costa Concordia the year prior) impacted Carnival Cruise Line actual revenues by about -5.8% from the original 2013 estimate (having been projected two months prior to Triumph in November 2012). The other cruise lines ended the year in line with prior estimates. Looking forward to 2014 the industry is expected to begin its normalization towards historic growth trends.

Among the 2014 highlights:

  • • The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $37.1 billion, up 2.3% from 2013.
  • • Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2014 is forecast at 21.6 million, a 3.0% increase over 2013.
  • • The top three cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: NCLH) account for 79.4% of worldwide share of passengers carried and 71.8% of worldwide share of revenues.
  • • Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $18.9 billion.
  • • The top two ports are Miami, FL for embarkations and Nassau Bahamas as destination.
  • • Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2014 will be 453,211 passengers (a 3.2% increase over 2013) and 292 ships.
  • • The average per passenger per day spending is projected to be $214.44, with $162.69 ticket price and $51.74 on board spending (average cruise duration 8.0 days, median duration 7.0 days).

A total of six new ships will be added in 2014 with a gain in passenger capacity of 17,410 (including the 4,000 passenger Norwegian Getaway, the 3,600 passenger Regal Princess, 2,500-guest Mein Schiff 3 (Tui Cruises), 3,000 berth Costa Diadema and 4,100 passenger Quantum of the Seas. Looking out further, 17 more new cruise ships will add 41,162 passenger capacity or 9.1% to passenger capacity by the end of 2016 – generating $3.4 billion more in annual revenue for the cruise industry.

By 2018, 24.1 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 58.8% will originate from North America and 27.2% Europe.