Cruise Market Community
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 26th January 2014
Now in its sixth consecutive year, we are proud to release the 2014 cruise market forecast.
English: Carnival Ecstasy departing Puerta Maya Pier in Cozumel. By Andy P. Jung (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Over the last six years the industry has adeptly managed a “great recession” and series of unfortunate, albeit historically rare, ship incidents. The Carnival Triumph (on the heals Costa Concordia the year prior) impacted Carnival Cruise Line actual revenues by about -5.8% from the original 2013 estimate (having been projected two months prior to Triumph in November 2012). The other cruise lines ended the year in line with prior estimates. Looking forward to 2014 the industry is expected to begin its normalization towards historic growth trends.
Among the 2014 highlights:
- • The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $37.1 billion, up 2.3% from 2013.
- • Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2014 is forecast at 21.6 million, a 3.0% increase over 2013.
- • The top three cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: NCLH) account for 79.4% of worldwide share of passengers carried and 71.8% of worldwide share of revenues.
- • Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $18.9 billion.
- • The top two ports are Miami, FL for embarkations and Nassau Bahamas as destination.
- • Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2014 will be 453,211 passengers (a 3.2% increase over 2013) and 292 ships.
- • The average per passenger per day spending is projected to be $214.44, with $162.69 ticket price and $51.74 on board spending (average cruise duration 8.0 days, median duration 7.0 days).
A total of six new ships will be added in 2014 with a gain in passenger capacity of 17,410 (including the 4,000 passenger Norwegian Getaway, the 3,600 passenger Regal Princess, 2,500-guest Mein Schiff 3 (Tui Cruises), 3,000 berth Costa Diadema and 4,100 passenger Quantum of the Seas. Looking out further, 17 more new cruise ships will add 41,162 passenger capacity or 9.1% to passenger capacity by the end of 2016 – generating $3.4 billion more in annual revenue for the cruise industry.
By 2018, 24.1 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 58.8% will originate from North America and 27.2% Europe.
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 21st August 2013
English: The Celebrity Millennium cruiseship docked in Nassau, Bahamas (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
After the recent mechanical issues with the Celebrity Millennium, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., which owns Celebrity Cruises, announced Tuesday the cancellation of the remainder of the ship’s seven-night cruise to Alaska and four additional cruises, when a faulty propulsion caused the return to port in Ketchikan on August 18. At the time, about 2,200 guests and nearly 960 crew members were on-board. The company will offer full refunds to all passengers who have been stuck in Ketchikan and also to guests booked on the other canceled sailings, as well as a certificate for a future cruise.
Lost revenue will show in many forms, including costly repairs of the vessel and lost on-board revenue. Based on actual ticket pricing, Cruise Market Watch estimates lost ticket revenue of $13,851,093:
| $ 3,058,593|
| $ 2,908,601|
| $ 2,555,152|
| $ 2,512,067|
| $ 2,816,680|
| Total|| $ 13,851,093|
Only time will tell if the unknown variable of customer sentiment will correlate to an additional effect on incremental sales, but our guess is that even naysayers would have a difficult time saying no to a $31.76 dollar/day 16 day cruise to Southern Europe on board of the Carnival Sunshine, which according to our database is the cheapest inside cabin on a per passenger per day basis that you could book. Happy sailing!
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 1st November 2012
The infographic below guides you on how far in advance you should book, and the season to set sail for the best deal on a Caribbean cruise. This provides a framework for planning, from which you can then narrow down your specific destinations, cruise duration, cabin type and ship segment. Based on actual pricing* from 26 cruise lines and 144 cruise ships representing over 7,500 sailings in the Caribbean and Bahamas between September 1, 2010 to November 30, 2013, it just goes to show a little advance planning can save a lot of money per person per day on your cruise itinerary.
Interestingly, unlike its European infograph counterpart, Caribbean cruises get more expensive each month closer to the sail on date – so no penalty for booking well in advance!
* Cruise Market Watch total weighted average price (per per person per day) across all cabin categories.
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 29th October 2012
List of possible cruise sailing disruptions from Hurricane Sandy:
|Scheduled Departure Dates|
|Departure Port/Ship Name||10/28/2012||10/29/2012||10/31/2012|
|Carnival Pride|| 2,251|
|Explorer of the Seas|| 3,301|
|Jewel of the Seas|| 2,234|
|New York NY|
|Caribbean Princess|| 3,301|
|Carnival Miracle|| 2,251|
|Crystal Symphony|| 1,018|
|Norwegian Gem|| 2,529|
|Norwegian Jewel|| 2,544|
|Queen Mary 2|| 5,554|
|Carnival Glory|| 3,152|
|Sum Of Passengers|| 19,038|| 4,781|| 4,318|
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 23rd October 2012
Cruise prices vary not only based on destination, number of nights booked, cabin type and ship segment but are also dependent on the season you set sail and how far in advance you buy. The same cruise itinerary can cost you a lot less per person per day if you book your ticket for the right season and the right number of months in advance. This infographic* can help you figure out the best time of year to go on a European cruise by highlighting prices by season and how far in advance you should book to get the best deal. The “rule of thumb for a European cruise” graphic requires little additional editorial comment. The only question that remains is what you will do with the money you save?
* Cruise Market Watch total weighted average price (per day per person) across all cabin categories from 30 cruise lines and 163 ships representing over 8,500 sailings in northern and southern Europe between September 1, 2010 to November 30, 2013.
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 20th October 2012
A type of boomerang occurs for companies and victims that suffer tragic events. First is the event itself, which is followed many months later by its reemergence in the news during subsequent trails and lawsuits. And so it is with Carnival, Concordia passengers, crew and their families while the captain of the cruise ship finished his pre-trial hearings last week. While no date has been set for the actual court case, we can expect the news flow to continue.
As demonstrated by the word cloud of that news flow below, the Captain remains squarely at the center of the discussion.
And the impact has been felt in the industry. Three weeks ago on September 25th, the word “Costa” was mentioned 67 times in Carnival’s Q3 earnings conference call. That was more than “Executive” (66 times), but less than “quarter” (96 times).
In summary, earnings were reduced as a result of the Concordia incident by about $500 million, and Costa lost about $100 million in 2012. In the most recent financial quarter – a quarter that booked revenue for sailings six to eight months after the accident, Costa accounted for over half of Carnival’s decline in net revenue yields.
The Costa brand’s occupancy drop was 5% in 2012, with an 11% decline in the second and a 6% drop in the third quarters. In the fourth quarter of 2012 Costa’s ships are expected to match the occupancy rates of a year prior, albeit at lower prices.
Going forward, pricing and occupancy for Costa’s bookings in Q1 2013 are tracking lower on a year-over-year basis. However, these differences will narrow as year over year comparisons versus 2012 become easier. According to Howard Frank, Carnival’s Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer “Based on consumer research, the brand perception in each of Costa’s major markets is gradually improving so we are greatly encouraged by the resiliency of the brand.”
In fact, Carnival has a new build on order for Costa with expected delivery in the Fall 2014 The Costa brand is also helping to develop an emerging cruise market strategy in Australia and Asia. Carnival has increased capacity by 8.5% in these markets and will be sending the Costa Atlantica to join the Costa Victoria in China in the spring of 2013. Costa was an early entrant into the Chinese market and has a marketing history there.
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 15th April 2012
Sally with RCL's Grandeur of The Seas
Cruising has always been about more than just sailing – it’s also about visiting and exploring destinations. One of the best ways to do that in Old San Juan Puerto Rico is a horse and carriage tour with Las Calesas Del Viejo San Juan. Not only will you get to see the highlights of Old San Juan, you will learn about the culture and history from your skilled and knowledgeable driver. The sound of horse’s hooves over the cobblestone streets can’t help but transport you back to the early years of Spanish rule in the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries.
Experiences such as these explain the positive cruise industry economic impacts to local economies and small businesses that operate shore side excursions.
Puerto Rico is no exception. With a 2012 Port Pulse™ rank of 26th (out of over 830 embarkation and destination ports around the world) the Port of San Juan benefits from the spending of 150,000 crew and 920,000 annual passengers. That is a direct economic impact estimated at over $125 million.
Review seasonality of 2012 passenger and crew spending in San Juan, cruise line share and embarkation vs. destination statistics in the charts below by clicking the image to enlarge.
Cruise passenger and crew spending in ports of call from direct spending on a variety of goods and services including ground transportation, clothing, food and shore excursions. For embarkation/debarkation ports estimates also include lodging as part of a pre- and/or post-cruise stay, air and ground transportation and miscellaneous port and cruise line services.
Sources: Crew and passenger visitation rates and port spending estimates derived from Business Research & Economic Advisors, Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association and Cruise Lines International Association. Each ship’s unique destination itinerary, sailing days and passenger capacity from Cruise Market Watch.
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 22nd January 2012
Thus far pricing* for sailings on Costa (all Costa ships, all sailing departure dates) has not changed since the Concordia accident on January 13, 2012. Click on graph below for advertised prices from January 7 to January 21, 2012. Note little or no change to the booking prices. With prices for Costa holding up, wave season for RCL and CCL are likely holding up as well (refer to Cruise Pulse for details).
This finding is backed up by responses from several U.S. travel agents in regard to booking demand. Surprisingly, agents have indicated minimal to no demand impact. Nevertheless, on 12/30/2012 Carnival guided loss a booking slow down in the mid teens.
Interestingly, travel agents are currently Carnival’s best marketing resource. While the “Land vs. Sea” campaign is off the air (given its theme the campaign does not “play well” with current events) thousands of travel agents are out in the community engaged in conversations with prospective cruisers on a daily basis. It is these human one-on-one interactions that assure vacationers this tragic event is a “one off“ and in fact, given the renewed focus on safety and procedures, now is the safest time to cruise ever.
* Average price per day per person, inside cabin.
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 14th January 2012
I’ve always been fond of the quotation “the law of flotation wasn’t discovered contemplating the sinking of things.” This has certainly held true for the cruise industry – growing the annual number of passengers carried nearly 5 times over the past 20 years. But with over 9,000 sailings worldwide in 2012 the odds of something going wrong somewhere do increase.
Traditionally I have considered the media coverage of cruises ships to be somewhat lopsided. I imagine there are plenty of things going on over the course of a year throughout hotel rooms in Las Vegas for example – but we tend not to hear these stories. By contrast, we do readily hear about the occasional sick cruise ship passenger, bad smell or overboard suicide.
My heart goes out to the passengers and families on Concordia’s sailing. This is a terrible tragedy by any measure. Without diminishing these human experiences, the recent events of the Costa Concordia will at the very least have an impact to Carnival’s near term bottom line, something Cruise Market Watch can measure.
For the Costa Concordia, remaining sailings in Carnival’s First Quarter (Q1) 2012 would have brought in an estimated total of $15.8 million in ticket revenue. For Q2 the impact will be in the order of $47.4 million in ticket revenue, Q3 $63 million and Q4 $45.9 million. Concordia was booking considerably higher prices during the summer (June, July and August). In a “back of the napkin” estimate that assumes the lost ticket revenue falls straight out of the bottom line this would equate to about .02 cents in Q1 earnings per share and .05 cents in Q2. The loss to earnings from the Carnival Splendor incident was .07 cents per share in a single quarter. Things we can’t measure include – what will be costs of raising and repairing the Concordia and when will she sail again? Will those who have already booked future sailings on Concordia transfer their vacations to other ships? What will be the legal actions and operational changes? We will have to wait to hear guidance from Carnival. Update: 12/30/2012 Carnival guided loss be in the range of $155-$175 million after a booking slow down in the mid teens. This news came after initially guiding $85 to $95 million lower (or .11 cents to .12 cents per share) on 12/16/2012.
Fortunately, ship builder Fincantieri has ship yards located right in Italy. Any near term impact to ticket pricing across Costa and other cruise brands will likely correlate with the duration of time in which the story continues to garner news headlines and cruise brands keep their wave season ad campaigns off the television. Pricing impacts will continue to be closely watched.
Posted By Cruise Market Watch / 29th November 2011
Among the 2012 highlights:
- ~ The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $34.1 billion
- ~ Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2012 is estimated at 20.3 million, a 5.6% increase over 2011
- ~ The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) account for 73% of worldwide share of revenue
- ~ The 2012 Port PulseTM rankings place Miami Florida as the #1 cruise embarkation port in the world and Nassau Bahamas the #1 port of call
- ~ Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $15.5 billion
Image via Wikipedia
While cruise lines have grown annual passengers traveled at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% since 1990 – all the cruise ships in the entire world filled at capacity all year long still only amount to less than ½ of the total number of annual visitors to Las Vegas. Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2012 is estimated at 20.3 million, an increase of 5.6% over 2011.
On the heals of the several new ships to be added to the market in 2012 (including the 3,690 passenger Carnival Breeze, the 3,013 passenger MSC Divina, 3,012-guest Costa Fascinosca and 2,500 berth Disney Fantasy) eight more new cruise ships will launch by 2015. These ships will generate another $2.3 billion in annual revenue for the cruise industry. By 2015, 22.3 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide.
This is not only good for the cruise industry (of which two cruise companies dominate – Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) with a combined 73% of worldwide market share) but also for the local economies of ports visited by cruise passengers. Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports around the world is estimated at $15.5 billion. The 2012 Port PulseTM rankings place Miami, Florida as the #1 embarkation port and Nassau Bahamas the #1 port of call. North America and Europe serve as the source markets for 85.9% of worldwide passengers, but other regions of the world such as Asia are growing significantly.
The new ships continue to bring attention to cruising, creating interest, additional pricing power, economies of scale and bookings of first time cruisers. Average cruise revenue per passenger per day for 2012 is projected to be $240.13.